CHAPTER LIV THE PRINCIPLE OF ANTICIPATION SOCIOLOGISTS have held that the essential difference be tween the popular and the scientific view of a proposed law or policy is that the one takes in only proximate effects, while the other embraces ultimate effects as well. The shortsighted. perceive the first order of effects, but not the train of consequences to which these effects give rise. Now, this notion, borrowed from physiology and medicine, does not fit well in sociology. It is another of the lame analogies which have cluttered up our field. The fact is that the contrast between shallowness and depth in social thinking does not hinge chiefly on the distinction between near consequences and remote consequences, but upon a distinction of a different character. СНАР. The shallow see the actions, good or bad, of persons and governments as so many isolated facts. For them the individual case of lying, extortion, pardon, subsidy, or charitable relief stands by itself. The thinker, however, perceives that mankind is always using action as a clue to future conduct, interpreting it as an indication of policy. And once people who are subject to the action of others discover, or imagine they discover, a policy Antici behind it, they accommodate themselves as best they can to this policy. Hence, action which leads those affected by it to anticipate like action in the future modifies their conduct, sometimes in ways unintended and undesired. The social scientist ought to anticipate these anticipations and thereby arrive at a judgment as to how particular policies will work "in the long run." In matters. social, then, what distinguishes sage from tyro is that, while the latter considers only the direct effects of a mooted policy, the former takes into account how the policy will react upon people through their anticipating its operation and endeavoring to adjust. themselves to it. The principle of anticipation may be stated at follows: Any pation Antic ipations should be Antic ipated CHAP. Formula of the Principle The Would-be Lawbreaker Should Antic ipate Relentless Pursuit established and known policy, whether of government, of a corporate body, or of an individual, which affects people favorably or unfavorably according to their present conduct, will come to be anticipated and will result in modifying behavior. Favorable action will call forth more of the conduct, condition, or type of character favored, while adverse action will tend to repress it. Let us examine now the more striking manifestations of this principle in the various provinces of social life. ANTICIPATION IN THE TREATMENT OF CRIME Authorities object to paying a reward for the return of an abducted person, "no questions asked," because such a policy lays a financial foundation for the following of abduction as a business. There is a plain conflict of interest between the wealthy parent, concerned only to recover his child, and society, intent on discouraging the practice of kidnaping. The practice of compounding a felony" illustrates a like conflict of interest and is justifiably frowned on by the law. The authorities very properly go to great expense in order to pursue, ferret out, or extradite the individual lawbreaker for the reason that, if it is apparent that frequently the lawbreaker comes off scatheless, the dread of the law will be weakened in the hearts of the evil-disposed and crime will increase. On the other hand, a show of resolution and relentlessness, a demonstration that the law will never give up and that in the end justice will always get its due, fills the hearts of bad men with a deterring dread. Making the punishment for mere robbery as severe as for robbery with murder has the effect of causing the greater crime to be preferred to the lesser in case it happens to be more lucrative or safer to commit. "One might as well be hung for a sheep as for a lamb." The policy of suppressing prostitution by prosecuting the harlot fails because often she is not a responsible person and, moreover, she is not a resident with property or reputation to lose. But the "abatement of nuisance" policy of prosecuting the owner of property used for immoral purposes strikes the Achilles' heel of commercialized prostitution because it attacks the resident property-owner, the one person in the vile partnership who has most to lose in the way of money and repute. CHAP. LIV Corpora in Invites The resort to the use of money by a railroad or public utility company in order to control a legislature acts in the end as a boomerang. The word runs through the political underworld on that there is "easy money going" and grafters strive desperately Money to get themselves elected to the legislature. The quality of the Politics legislators declines, "strike" bills multiply, the need of using Rascals money in order to protect the legitimate interests of the company to grows, so that in the end the company is harder hit than if from Work the first it had taken its chances with the uncorrupted representatives of the people. The policy of compensation for accidents may be a challenge to the ingenuity of impostors. In 1866 "dream neurosis" was first recognized in Germany as a form of nervous hysteria due to railroad accidents. Later it was accepted as a legitimate basis for compensation in the insurance system. At one time nearly 1 per cent. of German pensioners drew money for this disorder. The fact that after lump-sum compensation the sufferer regained health with wonderful rapidity awakened suspicions. Investigation proved that the state had been the victim of skilful shamming. Compensation ceased and "dream neurosis" as a distinct malady no longer exists. to get men's sation Indus Safe On the other hand, the happiest result of a workingman's Workingcompensation law is not that injured workingmen get something, Compenbut that employers, anticipating their new liability, greatly reduce Laws the number of accidents by adopting safety measures and devices. Make One of the most shortsighted policies on which an employer try can embark is the hiring of spies to worm their way into the labor unions and warn him of their plans. A demand for trouble will not long remain unsatisfied. In order to prolong their employment spies take the lead in inciting to policies of outrage and thus stir up much of the mischief which their employer pays them for reporting. Spies and "Watch men" See to it that Likewise for the employer to hire "watchmen" supplied by private detective agencies is to plunge into a quicksand. These agencies live off the dread of industrial violence; hence they see their Emto it that there shall be no lack of violence. Since badly-fright- ployment ened property-owners will hire more "watchmen," nothing is more profitable to the detective agencies than an epidemic of strikes, even of arson and murder. From the moment their mercenaries, recruited from the desperate and vicious elements, CHAP. Why Taxdodging is Progressive When Pardon be "Anticipated" and Hence Encour age Wrong doing? arrive on the scene a labor struggle enters upon a new and darker phase. A repressive government is duped in the same way. Its dependence upon reptilian characters who can deceive their em ployers because they work in the dark is discounted to the extent of their organizing anarchist groups and instigating, even executing, the deeds of violence which cause the government to lean more upon them. Azeff, who for sixteen years was a paid agent of the Russian police, was himself the chief organizer of acts of "revolutionary" terrorism. One will never know the amount of bad blood crooked agents provocateurs stirred up be tween government and people in Russia and between employers and workingmen in the United States. As the practice of tax-dodging becomes known, a resentment is inspired which prompts other persons to evade their taxes This in turn becoming known creates still wider zones of resentment and evasion, until finally only moral heroes declare all their taxable property. The experience of several American states shows that in from five to eight years a stiffening of the tax laws designed to bring to light more personal property runs through such a cycle of demoralization ending in a state of things as bad as ever. The pardoning of convicted persons is much more likely to be discounted and to lead to crime than the forgiveness of injuries If the wronged person forgives the offender after having him in his power heaps "coals of fire" upon his head-the latter's sense of fair play is powerfully appealed to and he is not likely to discount such forgiveness by a wanton repetition of the offense. The state, however, cannot safely pardon unless there is clear evidence of sincere repentance and a desire for amendment. ! Forgiveness not based upon such repentance may easily constitute an encouragement to evildoing. This, however, is not true of God's forgiveness of the wrongdoer, for God cannot be de ceived by empty professions of repentance. The non-resentment of wrongs is more likely to lead to their repetition when states are concerned than when persons are concerned. In the former case there is no room for an appeal to the offender's better nature. A neutral's neglect promptly to protest against violation of its rights by a belligerent may encourage the belligerent to a contemptuous disregard of its rights which in the end may goad 1 |