The problem of "technological unemployment" is essentially twofold: One, the expansion of total production sufficiently to overcome the effect on unemployment of declining labor requirements and increasing labor supply; and two, adjustment of the individual employment dislocations which accompany technological progress.

The growth in total output from 1920 to 1929 was not sufficient, in the light of the increased productivity and the growth of the labor supply, to absorb all the available manpower; the result was a substantial volume of unemployment during this entire period. The data examined indicate that, while the continued advance in the material well-being of the country depends upon technological progress of the country's productive apparatus, we must look to a much more rapid expansion of production than has taken place between 1933 and 1935 before we can expect a return either to the employment or to the unemployment levels of the predepression period. A rough calculation indicates that, in order for unemployment to drop to the 1929 level by 1937, goods and services produced would have to reach a point 20 percent higher than that in 1929, even if the productivity level of 1935 remained unchanged. Further technological advances in industries would necessitate an even greater expansion of production to restore predepression unemployment levels, while a continued relative growth of service activities would tend to minimize the volume of expansion required.

An undetermined but substantial proportion of the unemployed in any single year probably consisted of

workers who had been displaced from their jobs in one way or another by the employment dislocations which accompany technological progress. The notable expansion in employment which took place between 1920 and 1929 was due almost entirely to the rapid growth of service activities; their occupational requirements differed so widely from those of the basic industries which registered declines that it is extremely unlikely that all the workers displaced from basic industries obtained new jobs in the service industries.

Such material as is available on the question of adjustment of displaced workers indicates that the unskilled and younger workers lost less in occupational status and earnings (since they had less to lose) than the skilled workers; the middle-aged group found it easier to obtain suitable reemployment than the older workers; women found it easier to obtain jobs than the men, but suffered greater income losses; the workers who did find jobs found them chiefly in occupations and industries other than those in which they had previously worked.

The outlook for the immediate future seems to be in the direction of further technological progress toward a level of productivity substantially higher than that attained prior to 1929. The rate of advance of course differs in different industries, but since our economic system has not evinced an ability to make the necessary adjustments fast enough, it may be expected that the dislocations occasioned by technological progress will continue to present serious problems of industrial, economic, and social readjustment.

1

Justification of a planning program in technology, as in other subjects, may arise from recognition of continuing change either as indicated in past records or in the conditions of any given time. If accurate prediction of future situations were possible, it would be important to plan the adjustment of flexible elements in all activities to conditions of the future. If precise forecasting is not feasible, forward-looking plans would still be desirable, as furnishing means for quick adaptation in order either to avoid cataclysmic changes or to carry out constructive programs. The extent to which effective planning is possible will depend upon the accuracy of our knowledge concerning both individual features and the laws expressed in changes known to have taken place.

Modification in what we call the result or contribution of technology as illustrated in industry sometimes occurs so quickly that it produces disturbing social influences. If such shifts could be foreseen, many difficulties would be avoided. If they cannot be predicted, it may still be possible to understand the circumstances sufficiently to avoid unfortunate effects if precautionary measures are taken.

The relation of science to technology has become increasingly important as the products of research come to have a more significant place in industry. In development of this relation connecting science and technology and industry, the responsibility of science to the contribution of technology is evident. But commonly the relation of science to industry and technology is only in part direct; generally it is the application of inventive genius in utilization of results coming from research that brings about the rapidly developing series of changes in engineering and industry.

The importance of the relation of science to technology and to industry depends in considerable part upon the expectation of changes in science which may affect technology and influence industry or even the general trend of thought. If we were known to be dealing with a static world in which our knowledge regarding all available materials and of man was approximately complete, it would be possible to formulate plans which, with slight variation, might operate almost indefinitely. It is, however, clear that by whatever means we view the history of science and research we are seen to be dealing with almost continuously chang

1 President, Carnegie Institute of Washington.

ing conditions to which adjustment must be made. Activities coming out of the growth of science have given us means for new development of transportation, geographic discovery, communication, and a multitude of other things, perhaps culminating in the automobile and the radio of the present day. A relatively large percentage of these recent advances has arisen from the contribution of science carried to application by engineering. A critical question in discussion of this subject concerns the expectation of a continuing supply of new knowledge from science which may lead to technology and industry.

We may perhaps set down as one of the most important contributions from modern science and research the suggestion that we are probably very far from having a complete knowledge of anything in the world of physical, biological, or human values. In the universe of things physical alone, very great advances have been made within the last generation in our knowledge of materials, forces, and conditions. encountered on all sides in everyday life. In biology the degree of complication is still greater, and investigators generally hold that we are just beginning to understand fundamental life conditions and processes.

To those acquainted with the development of science there is little difficulty in accepting the suggestion that our knowledge of nature and man will increase greatly with the coming centuries. It is also to be expected that human constructive activity will bring about the creation of conditions and relationships which have not previously existed. If this suggestion be accepted, development of any planning program of national scope must take into consideration the significance of these new factors in bringing about readjustment. While it is not possible to predict the direction which such changes will take, or the specific fields in which discoveries, inventions, or new creative activities may express themselves, it would be unfortunate if these possibilities were neglected in a general planning pro

gram.

It is essential also that a planning program give attention to study of the actual applications being made of values derived from research in its various forms. Organization of means by which results of science already available or arising through new discoveries could come into human use might mean an enormous contribution to betterment of conditions for life.

The law of survival of the fittest would ultimately care for new materials and new ideas. But our knowl