Predicting the Effects of an Invention Since the effects follow after the invention, the difficulties of predicting them might seem to be multiplied, since one must risk first the errors in foreseeing the invention, and then the errors in forecasting its consequences. However, a powerful principle comes to one's aid, making it easier to predict the effects than the inventions themselves, the principle, namely, of functionally equivalent invention.29 Inventions are not only duplicated very often by identical solutions arrived at by different men about the same time, as noted above, but inventions are also paralleled by other, equivalent devices to the same end or effect, on other principles, perhaps utterly different principles, but coming into use around the same time. They promise jointly, though not singly, the effects which would naturally flow from such a function. If one invention fails to arrive and bring the effect, some other or others will. For instance, there are half a dozen recent means of geophysical prospecting-examining what is underground without sinking shaft or bore hole, nor remaining content with surface indications. Footnote 28-Continued. Babson, R. W.: Air Flivvers and the Future; and 20 Ways to Make a Million; in Forum, 81: 157-164 and 277-281, 1929. Fournier d'Albe, E. E.: Quo Vadimus, Some Glimpses of the Future. Dutton's Today and Tomorrow ser., 1925. 100 Years Hence. Fuller, Col. J. F. C.: Pegasus; or Problems of Transportation. Today and T. ser., 1926. Furnas, C. C.: The Next Hundred Years. 1935. 1925. If You Were Alive in 2123 A. D.; in Century, 106: 549-566. (Equivalent to his Daedulus, or Science and the Future.) Hale, Wm. J.: Chemistry Triumphant. 1932. Henninger, A. B.: Predictions for 2026. Rev'd in Sci. and Inv., May 1927, p. 9. Hubbard, Hen. D.: The Motion Pictures of Tomorrow; and Wonderlands of Tomorrow. Mimeographed addresses, 1921 and 1926, Leonard, J. N. Tools of Tomorrow. 1935. Liddell Hart, Capt. B. H.: Paris, or the Future of War. Today and T. ser., 1925. Low, Alfred M.: The Future. London and New York, 1925, 202 pp. Low, Archibald M.: Wireless Possibilities. Today and T. ser., 1924. Maurois, André: The Formidable Future: in Liv. Age, 332: 732-734, 1927. Myers, Gustavus: How Inventions are Changing the Course of Business and Industry; in Mag. of Wall St., 41: 669 ff., 1928. Parsons, Floyd W. Facts and Fancies-New Industries, a National Remedy; in Gas Age Rec.,65: II: 731 ff., 1930. New Things and Better Ones; in Sat. Eve. Post, Sept. 18, 1926, pp. 12 ff. Also Science and Everyday Life; in Feb. 6, pp. 14 ff. Popular Mechanics, 63: 362–367, 1935. Do Prophecies About Inventions Come True? A symposium. Popular Sci. Mo., May 1922, pp. 21, 22, and 26-28. A symposium of predictors of invention. Russell, Bertrand: Icarus, or the Future of Science. ser., 1924. Today and T. Stearns, Myron M.: (What) Babies Born Today May See; in Pop. Sci. Mo., 111: 21, 22, 166, October 1927. Stine, C. M. A.: Change Rules the Rails; in Vital Speeches of the Day, Mar. 9, 1936, pp. 346–351. Whitney, W. R: What Won't They Do Next? in Amer. Mag., August 1930. Wilhelm, Donald: Tomorrow's Gadgets; in New Outlook, February 1934, 13-17. Gilfillan (see note 24), pp. 137-148 on equivalent invention. Sixteen different means of flying have been experimented with in recent years, of which the airplane, airship, and glider are the three most familiar. The great bogey of flight, fog, has recently been or may soon be conquered by some of the 25 known means. There are means contained within the aircraft itself: Training the pilot, especially to fly by the feel of his sitting. Instruments to show the directions and speed of flight by sight, And by binaural hearing. The sonic altimeter, for learning height above the ground, to 4 feet. Seeing the ground or the sun by infra-red light, through the electron telescope just invented by Zworykin. Trailing a television transmitter in clear air far below the plane. Flying high to surmount clouds. Ability to land gently on any ground or water. Plane designed for automatic stability and no stalling. Gyro pilot. There are also means involving cooperation (or sometimes hostility) from the ground: Modulated-light landing beacon. Sound-ranging, from sounds emitted at ground sta tions. Shooting smoke bombs up above the fog. Radio messages or signals. Radio direction finder of ordinary type. Radio beam, ordinary straight. Radio beams adapted to lead the pilot in a proper curved path for landing. Locating aircraft from the ground by their sound, or by radio ranging, from signals or the sparking of the engine, or by the heat of the exhaust sending infrared rays. Dispelling fog by calcium chloride droplets, or by projected electric heat, or by spraying electrified sand. With all these 25 different means apparently available for conquering fog, we may quite confidently predict that by some means or other fog will be effectively overcome for aviators soon. We be conmay fident even though several of the 25 means should turn out to be worthless, and no others be added by future invention in this now very active field. And hence we have a firm basis for predicting the social effects of aviation without danger from fog. But furthermore, conquering fog and determining the general type of aircraft are only two of many con siderations controlling future aviation, as to its safety, regularity, speed, 'popularity, and utility. The total of inventions and other influences making for the progress of aviation is so vastly numerous that we might give up trying to appraise them separately, and simply consider that they are added, subtracted, and multiplied together to make up the observed total progress of aviation in the past. This total of flight history, graphed as ascending curves measuring various achievements, may be simply extrapolated a few years into the future, to show us the coming state of aviation year by year, without understanding being necessitated of how or why it will be so. On such prediction (and probably on any other kind available) our Government staked half a billion dollars, in building the Panama Canal with locks 1,000 by 110 by 41 feet, larger than any ship afloat in 1907. But this was justified by the evolution of ships during the past 30 years and by their expected development. Even when we add together all the inventions touching aviation, including engines, better alloys, ground equipment, meteorological discoveries, etc., we have still not assembled the total inventive base on which should be erected our social predictions. Aviation's expected effects of more and faster travel, mail and express carriage, encouraging wider organization of businesses and Federal functions, more national uniformity of interests, customs and sentiments, more international contacts similarly, and a faster tempo of life-all are identical with some of the effects expected from faster trains, autos, ships, radio, television, and most of the other inventions in or affecting transportation and communication. This again enlarged base of possible instruments makes the prediction of the social influences still more certain. The principle of functionally equivalent invention entails that the wider one's definition of an invention, or field of invention, the more certain, foreseeable and measurable become the social effects. And it is the widest definitions that matter most-what produces the total effect, the great effect that concerns people and should be appropriately met. So clear, indeed, are these general effects to be expected from technology, that they are largely well-known already. The purpose of this volume is, therefore, not so much to dwell on them, as on the somewhat narrower, more specific effects, and on inventions, as of aviation, television, and often more closely limited inventions. 8778-37-3 By S. C. Gilfillan Manufacturing and Labor The chapters of part three discuss, in more or less elaborate detail, many inventions which are likely to alter manufacturing processes and the utilization of labor in the immediate future. To attempt here a comprehensive forecast of the manifold economic and social aspects of these dramatic developments is impossible, because of the hazards of such forecasts and because limitations of space preclude the introduction of adequate supporting details. Only a few basic developments will be cited, those that affect wide reaches of manufacturing. Indirectly, the social and economic effects of technological changes in manufacturing processes touch every phase of human life. Directly, the effects of a particular invention in manufacturing may be primarily in its saving of labor, in its saving of capital, in its improvement of working conditions, in its cheapening of the product and increase of consumption, in its improvement of the product, or in its creation of a new kind of goods. Some inventions in manufacturing may have most or all of these effects combined; other inventions may have only one or two of these effects. The effect of an invention which seems to be most in people's minds is that of displacing labor. The usual formula for the origin of labor-saving inventions is as follows: First, a job is divided up among many workmen, and the specialized tasks of some become so simple and monotonous, like pushing a lever or feeding a machine, that, while efficiency is increased, craftsmanship is destroyed. Next, the task having become so simple, it is comparatively easy to invent a mechanical device to do it instead, and to do it better and far faster, with mere supervision by a workman. Hence, the more monotonous a job has become, the closer it has been brought to abolition. In good times the displaced worker, especially of unskilled or semiskilled, normally finds another simple job, the manufacturer sells more cheaply, and the consumer has more to spend for other things. The monotonous jobs displaced by machines in the past have been those that could be entirely controlled by other perceiving senses than seeing. Machines could duplicate man's power to feel form, size, weight, temperature, pressure, etc., but no machine could see. A host of simple jobs like candling eggs, that required seeing, still have to be done by men instead of machines, however monotonous. Therefore, the development of a device which can see, namely, the photoelectric cell, carries with it a vast range of future 24 economic effects. The photoelectric cell is doing an in creasing number of tasks better than the most keeneyed, skillful, faithful, and tireless workman. And it brings electrical action on what it sees, instantly, at any distance, and 24 hours a day if desired. The photoelectric cell has been set already to a remarkable variety of tasks (part three, ch. VII). It makes a particularly good combination with the vacuum tube and various automatic registering and controlling devices, making possible continuous operation and distant control. It seems reasonable to expect a rapid and wide application of this mechanism, with the results of ending many a dull job, speeding manufacture, improving quality, and encouraging multiple shifts and processes. Its use will probably have more capital than is needed for the new apparatus. The saving of labor to the manufacturer should be even greater. Not only can machines see; they can also hear. The implications of the televox and other acoustical equipment which might be called the "electric ear" are, however, probably much less varied and important than those of the photoelectric cell. Moreover, much of the acoustical development is too near the laboratory to justify one forecasting effects with the same confidence as in the case of the "electric eye." Yet the new principle is a dramatic one. Sounds can be sifted out and selectively heard by novel devices, so that a door has been fitted to open only to the words "Open Sesame", and machinery to stop on "hearing" the cry “Help.” Televox exemplifies another idea likely to have extension, that of using ordinary telephone lines to convey sounds which can actuate distant mechanisms. It seems likely that such electrical ears and voices frequently will fit well into such complexes as have been indicated for the electric eye. They will save employment of observers at scattered posts, and listen for particular sounds which indicate how a process is going, or for sound signals. They will actuate appropriate controls, promote safety, give directions, and perhaps even distinguish individuals, accomplishments all demonstrated today. Again, there should result much reduction of monotonous jobs, and an increased demand for electricians, inspectors, and skilled mechanics instead of mere operatives. Four characteristic trends of modern manufacturing, (1) toward continuous processes, (2) automatic operation, (3) use of registering devices, and (4) of controlling devices are conspicuous.30 The last two may 30 See Technology and the Chemical Industries, Pt. Three, Ch. VI. embody the new electric eye or ear or only the older mechanical "senses." Or they may automatically make chemical tests, such as sampling furnace gas every few minutes for its proportion of carbon dioxide, to enable efficient and smokeless combustion, or measuring acidity, or chemical content by an automatic spectrophotometer. Such controls serve to improve the product as much as to save labor. One must be cautious in forecasts, however, and remember that mere technical possibility does not in itself insure future economic usefulness. 31 Timing devices increasingly used, the prerecording oscillograph, and numerous other machines can almost parallel powers of the human mind. It appears that no limit can be set to the work which might be taken over by machinery, although the rule holds that it is the most simple and most monotonous tasks, whether physical or mental, that are the most readily replaceable through invention. While such tasks are being mechanized, new monotonous tasks are being created, through subdivision of old jobs whose product has become available for larger scale production. Amid all the diversity of manufacturing operations, an invention with wide and increasing use is welding, by three basic methods, as well as the promising development of brazing. The results affect much more than just the direct engineering economy. The more skilled trade of welder replaces that of riveter. The fearful noise of riveting is eliminated. Metal is economized, and capital is further saved through assembly savings and the greater durability of welded products. Longer life, by diminishing replacement, tends to slow up invention. Welding, more than riveting, but less than casting, fosters neatness of form, curves, streamlining, and the new art style of metal architecture. It helps especially in the manufacture of airplanes, automobiles, high-speed trains and many other devices, mostly in transportation that especially need lightness, trimness, or permanently tight joints. Welded ships are being built. The shipbuilding trades of riveter and caulker may eventually become obsolete. By related devices, machining is being reduced by "flame machining" with the oxyacetylene torch, and metal is being cut by the electric arc cutting saw. The work of machining is being speeded to a revolutionary degree by new, super-hard alloys for cutting tools. Machining is being further reduced by drop forging, and by the introduction of plastics, which reach final form and finish in the mold, and may enclose metal parts. New metals and alloys are being added, and the number of possible combinations of elements, proportions, and treatments increases much faster than the number of usable metals. Such prog See Technology and the Electrical Goods Industry by Cruse, Pt. Three, Ch. VII. ress speeds up the obsolescence of machinery and therefore may encourage in some cases the construction of machinery with less rather than greater durability. Another result is that the scrap-metal supply, which has become so important that it now contributes the larger part of some metals, is becoming corrupted with alloying metals. These elements are beneficial for many uses, but they disturb the uniformity of product always striven for today, or require expensive detection and removal or proper distribution. The growth of manufacturing industries is dependent to a large extent on the production of cheap power. The various inventions which combine to make power show many directions of progressing economy. There are also increasing tendencies for the power to be electrical, or from internal combustion engines, and for heating to be increasingly furnished by exhaust steam (at rising pressures) from large electrical generating plants. Other developments still in the experimental stage indicate that much higher thermal efficiencies than at present will be general before many years. Still cheaper power is not likely to be of increasing importance in the future in encouraging the use of further ordinary machinery. The wholesale power cost is already so low that the main obstacles to the introduction of new power machinery are other factors-the costs of devising, building, and perfecting the new machinery and its housing, and difficulties of selling the increased production. But important increases in power use may be expected in fields in which power or heat costs are a main factor. Such are electro-chemistry, aluminum and magnesium production, air reduction, air conditioning, large-scale lighting and ultraviolet radiation, fast navigation, and aviation. Further increased use of cheapened electricity may likewise be expected in lines in which electricity has ready rivals, especially for heating industrial and other equipment and occasional room warming. With all increased uses of electricity will come more inventions on the ways to use it. Particularly notable may be the fostering of air conditioning, steep-flight aircraft, ferrous, aluminum, and magnesium alloys, nitrogenous fertilizers, copper, and the whole strong-current electric industry. A socially important influence of the increased use of electricity, especially as power plants tend to be concentrated into great generating stations often outside the city, is to reduce the sooty smoke in cities. The sulphur dioxide in coal smoke, however, which eats impartially clothes and paper, throats, buildings, and vegetation, is not removed by the better burning in large furnaces, but only by costly smoke purification, or removal of the plant. Numerous remedies, especially the fast-growing domestic mechanical stoker, are available to reduce greatly the various evils of smoke, but require social enforcement. For smoke always hurts the community more than it hurts the owner of the chimney. Among important technological improvements in the manufacturing processes are those which alter the working conditions of labor, although they may or may not replace labor. Two examples of such developments which have implications for the future are inventions pertaining to lighting and air-conditioning in factories. The increasing efficiency and economy of artificial light encourage the trend toward the use of night shifts a trend which, of course, was interrupted during the depression. Transportation, printing, mining, and chemical and metallurgical works have long used multiple shifts, thus getting double or treble the use out of their billions of capital. The stream of new mechanical inventions, which hasten the obsolescence of machinery in manufacturing generally, encourages more intensive working than before in order to wear out equipment before it is obsolete. Transition to the two- or three-shift system is frequently retarded because workers object to the night shift, involving social isolation, difficulties of sleep, and, for women employees, housekeeping fatigues, while employers have found night work less efficient. Some of these difficulties would be lessened as night work became more general and as social institutions made adjustments to the new conditions. Air conditioning, which was first applied in factories for the benefit of the goods, is likely to be extended gradually as it becomes cheaper and as more thought is given to the efficiency and comfort of the worker. With air conditioning also will come better insulation against noise. One concern of manufacturing with invention has come into the public and congressional eye of late, namely, patent pooling.32 Particularly when invention starts a new industry, the situation is apt to arise where patents, some only desirable, some indispensable, are scattered among numerous companies, with the result that none should practice the new art without the consent of others. Usually there ensues a protracted and costly series of lawsuits over patents. Finally, to end this obstruction and enable production to go ahead unhampered, using all the best ideas, either a pooling of patents is agreed to, or one company obtains a monopoly of all the essential patents. Pools have developed from time to time in the American airplane, automobile, solid rubber tire, movie, talking 2 Pooling of Patents, hearings before the Committee on Patents, House of Representatives, 74th Cong., on H. R. 4523 (Chairman Sirovich's bill for recording patent pooling agreements), 4 vols., 1935-36. Also The Storm over Patent Pools; Business Week, Oct. 26, 1935, p. 30; and Dec. 28. picture, incandescent lamp, bicycle, coaster brake, sewing machine, shoe machinery, radio, vacuum tube, and several other industries.33 Even in the old industries, the constant arrival of new inventions keeps in the foreground the problem of the patent pool. But we are most strongly reminded of it by the prospect of new industries, based on aviation, television, phototelegraphy, air conditioning, the prefabricated house, magnesium, the cotton picker, and many other inventions discussed in this volume. There is the question of whether complete freedom of patent ownership should prevail in these coming industries and others—including the freedom of each important patentee to balk the others and fight ad libitum in the courts, and the freedom to organize private patent pools, such as have sometimes proved oppressive and sometimes very helpful-or whether some attempt will be made to prevent all patent pools, or to restrict or regulate them in the public interest. The fundamental problem of the working of our social institutions for eliciting, paying for, and securing early and wide use of desirable inventions has never been completely examined. It is a problem calling for a national policy.3* Travel and Fast Transport Technological changes in passenger transportation usually have more direct and obvious effects on the general public than changes in the manufacture of goods, especially of producers goods. Inventions in manufacturing, even when ultimately revolutionary, usually touch the general public indirectly and in a gradually diffusive and pervasive form. The details of various inventions in the field of transportation are treated elsewhere.35 Since a rigid selection is necessary for the present section, the effects of changes in slow traffic, as in most freight, will not be considered. The discussion here is limited to a few of the future social and economic consequences of significant technological developments of passenger travel and fast transport of goods. The future of air transport is a happy hunting ground of romancers and it is indeed difficult to avoid the temptation to unleash the imagination with little reference to present-day realizations. Forecasts written 20 years ago in a spirit of scientific caution, 33 Patent pools have existed also in the cordage, harrow, wind stacker, bath tub, oil cracking, seeded raisin, and cigarette industries, according to the authority of Dr. Warren M. Persons and F. L. Vaughan: Econ. of Our Pat. System, p. 169; Wm. Beard: Govt. and Technology, pp. 453-61 and the hearings noted above. 34 Cf. author's Sociology of Invention, ch. VI, The Decline of Patenting, and Recommendations. A commission of inquiry is proposed on pp. 122-130. Also science advisory board: Report of the committee on relation of patent system to stimulation of new industries; Washington 1935, F. L. Vaughan: Economy of our Patent System, 1925; T. H. Low, The Inventor, December 1935. See Osgood's chapter on Technology and Transportation. |