In Or Out: Does it Matter? : an Evidence-based Analysis of the Euro's Trade Effects

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Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2006 - 110 sider
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The euro can be seen as the world's largest economic policy experiment. Six years ago, European nations accounting for 20% of world output, 30% of world trade, and 300 million people found themselves using the same currency. Given the importance that monetary regimes have on the course of human events, this should have had effects all across the board ?affecting everything from unions' wage bargaining to educational exchanges and corporate investment strategies. This report reviews the existing empirical literature on the trade effects of currency unions, in non-European and European cases. It goes on to speculate on the types of economic mechanisms that might be driving these trade effects and proposes diagnostic tests that could help reject some or all of the theoretical explanations. Finally, conclusions on the size of the trade effect of the euro are drawn.

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Indhold

Introduction
1
List of Tables
7
2 Bilateral imbalance as percentage of oneway flow US dollar
13
3 Rose effect estimates arranged by estimator
29
Is the Euro Area Rose Effect a Spurious Result?
47
What Caused the Euro Area Rose Effect?
55
1 Trade diversion results MSO 2003
57
4 FlamNordström sectoral Rose effects
64
Testing the NewGoods Hypothesis
75
the overall Rose effect
82
Summary and Policy Implications
87
1 Simulation of extra imports and exports for euro area joiners
89
Summary of the most relevant pricing studies
95
Endnotes
101
Copyright

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Om forfatteren (2006)

Richard Baldwin is professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva and policy director of CEPR.

Bibliografiske oplysninger