that what we wish to do is a sign of what they must wish. That the South American states had the wish to follow our experiment in government is undoubtedly true. But to wish and to do are different things. They all, except Brazil, sat at our feet so to speak; formed their constitutions upon ours and started upon the road to freedom which only led them, in their case, into the slough of almost incessant revolution and political convulsion. Back of their wish was the great dominant power of race temperament which governs and ever will govern in great degree all effort. The fateful inheritance was the oriental temperament of the Spaniards, for the Spaniard in the main is not a European, but a child of the orient. Basicly he is a Berber, for such was the ancient Iberian, which probably has its root in the word Berber, and his near relatives are the Berbers today of the Atlas, and the Moors of Morocco; and farther back the Arab and the latter's kindred races. These races have never got rid of their tribal tendencies and it is this tendency which accounts for the subjugation of Spain by the Atlas Berbers and Moors in 700, for the downfall of their power 800 years later; for the constant regionalism of Spain which exists even today and prevents a real solidarity of the various kingdoms of Spain, and for the frequent revolutions and upheavals of the Mexican and South American republics. It is in the nature of the Spanish (and governing) part of their population. This tendency will be modified as the native races and their mixture with the whites increase in comparison with the pure white. It is estimated that already in Mexico the population in nineteentwentieths Indian. It is only the phlegmatic character of the race and their want of assertiveness which prevents their having a greater influence. Thus the Mexican revolutions are the outcome of the exploitation of the weaker and milder race by but about a million of people of the restless Spanish or nearly Spanish blood, the character of the dominancy of which is shown by the casting sometimes of less than 18,000 votes in a presidential election in a population of about 18,000,000. Notwithstanding, and though very few can be said to be republics in any but

name, certain of these countries by reason of race mixture and pressure of commercial interests, have already grown out of their chaotic conditions. Argentina is today a well ordered prosperous country, rich beyond even North American ideas and with a capital city, Buenos Aires, of a population of over a million, a rival in construction, well-being, appearance and wealth of any city in the world. The country, mainly temperate in climate and well nigh half the size of the United States, has a great destiny. It is undoubtedly one of the seats of empire. It is beyond the stage when it can be patronized. The same may be said of Chile and Brazil though the last (never revolutionary in an extreme sense) is immensely handicapped by its non-homogeneous population, so largely negro and Indian and of a mixture of both these with the white. In all the other states, except Uruguay which is still perhaps the most truly Spanish in blood, the mixture is chiefly Indian, as in Mexico. We have thus in our dealings with the regions to the south of us, to consider powers racially so different from ourselves that our understanding of one another is extremely difficult. The polite and ceremonious South American of Spanish descent cannot understand our rudeness of manner, our overbearingness, our want of that courtesy in general on which the Spaniard lays a stress which the North American mind fails wholly to comprehend. And, too, for generations, we sent to South America many diplomatic and consular representatives who misrepresented sadly their country. I could tell some very queer stories of such. Our government in later years has come to understand the necessity of sending a higher class of representatives, but it will take long to dispel the old impressions.

Naturally with such impressions immensely accentuated by racial and lingual differences, the southern republics have turned to Europe rather than to us for trade, travel and amusements. Brazil and the countries south are also much nearer Europe than to us, so that everything has worked against an actual drawing together of these regions and ourselves.

It has seemed necessary to say so much of conditions,

THE JOURNAL OF RACE DEVELOPMENT, VOL. 4, NO. 3, 1914

as they are closely related to any discussion of the meaning of the Monroe Doctrine today.

That there is any danger to Brazil, Argentina or Chile, such as was existent in 1823, it is impossible to believe. Undoubtedly these now comparatively powerful countries would stand together were either attacked with a view to subjugation, by a European power. Such an alliance is in itself an all sufficient Monroe Doctrine in so far as the establishment of a European hegemony in the southern and south-eastern part of South America is concerned. I thus am of the opinion that we need not concern ourselves about such a danger more than to declare a readiness to join with these three principal powers in case such emergency should arise. But I am convinced that no such emergency will arise through any European power, though there is a volume of immigration which is sure to change the predominance in importance of the Portuguese blood in southern Brazil and that of the Spanish in Uruguay, Argentina and more slowly in Chile. For more than ninety years there has been emigration from Germany to South Brazil, and the 110,000 who have come to southern Brazil between 1820 and 1911 amount today to more than 300,000 by far the greater number of whom know of course no other fatherland. There are also today hundreds of thousands of Italians chiefly of the better north Italian stock and who, in Brazil are chiefly a little to the north of the Germanic region. But these people whatever may come (and it must be kept in mind that migration to South America is Latin in enormous proportion, the German, to Brazil being not more than 4000 a year), will never put themselves under the government of a European power. Should Brazil, which be it remembered is considerably larger than the United States, leaving aside Alaska, ever separate into a north and a south through racial differences, the south would either set up its own government or attach itself to Argentina which in time may control the whole of the river Plate region. I would say however that I regard any danger of separation, by reason of race, extremely unlikely in that

the northern states are destined to be peopled by those of a blood whose special characteristic is subordination. In any case even were there a fear of European difficulty it would seem the part of wisdom to encourage the filling up of these vast spaces where possible by a better sort of man than the negro or Indian. It would be better far, for Brazil and the world, if the Germans in Brazil numbered millions where they are now only a few hundreds of thousands. If in time Germanic blood became the chief element, the state would still be Brazil, but a Brazil of a higher type intellectually and economically. We must not lose sight of race values, and this question is thus to Brazil of the most momentous character. Of its population of about 19,000,000, much the largest population is negro, mixed negro and white and Indian. The whites predominate in numbers in the further south only.

While this south is largely a high table land, the northern interior is chiefly a vast low-lying region all well within the tropics and with the tepid climate in which the white can never thrive. Escaping disease, as at Panama, is one thing, thriving in such a climate is another, and however strenuous may be the endeavor to people the whole of Brazil with white men it must be to a very great extent a failure. At least two-thirds of her territory must in time be the abode of colored races, and in time there will be in most parts but very few pure whites.

We thus need not concern ourselves about European emigration to Brazil north of Rio Janeiro; nature will take care of that part of the problem.

While there are great regions to which the white man will not go to establish himself permanently, the colored races are able to thrive even in fairly cold climates. Thus the facts just stated open up a problem more vast and momentous to us than our slavery question; that is shall we approach the Brazilian conditions?

However kindly our feeling, we can not but recognize that some races make a more valuable return to the species than others. We preach greatly what we now term eugenics which translated broadly means the production of

the best man. We are faced in our own country by this question in a more serious form than is any other great nation. A tenth of our population is now negro which is rapidly in the north mixing with the white; the incoming population is largely itself negroid, particularly that from the Portuguese islands, less markedly from Portugal itself and markedly from Sicily and Naples. Many thousands of jet black negroes calling themselves Portuguese, as they are under the flag, have entered Massachusetts from the Cape Verde Islands in the last few years and every Cape Verde Islander will finally come and help his fellows pick cranberries on Cape Cod, or work in the New Bedford mills. The census gives nearly 50,000 negroes as part of our population not born in the United States, and there are undoubtedly many more than the census notes. The time is rapidly approaching when we may expect a great immigration from the Congo basin of Africa. It becomes a mighty question which it behooves us to consider, and that soon. Says Pearson, in his National Life and Character, and he saw farther into the future than most of his time:

The distant future of a country is so unimportant by the side of its immediate needs to the men in possession that even if they were reasonably certain that a particular evil ought to be guarded against at an immediate sacrifice, they would rarely be possessed of the moral force required for the effort.

Shall we have this moral force in the matter of Africa whose millions will undoubtedly before long be at our doors? If not, the present differentiation in character between ourselves and Mexico and much of South America will in no very distant time disappear and we shall have approximated a general likeness in both parts of our hemisphere. It is a matter for our most serious thought, to which at the moment I can give but bare mention, but I would that you would hold it in earnest thought. Shall we have and display that patriotism of race, to use a phrase of Arthur Balfour's, which alone can save us from being a negroid nation? If it is a vital question; one before which the questions involved in the Monroe Doctrine shrink to insignificance.