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nation great. Sufficient proof that the methods of Díaz were not those which Mexico needed, at least in the last decade of his rule, is furnished by the deplorable condition to which they have brought her.
When the reaction came in 1910 it was natural that the pendulum should swing too far. Madero was extravagant in his promises, and the people were too impatient in their demand for immediate reforms. But Madero had prepared his downfall in the very moment of his victory over Díaz. He then, to stop bloodshed and perhaps for other reasons, made a compromise with the old régime that delayed and made difficult the consummation of his reforms. If, as may be true, he himself, when President, became somewhat shaken also in his plans, the purpose of the Mexican people remained steady. The earlier revolts against Madero, as well as those of Félix Díaz, were perhaps led by selfish men; but they were largely supported by peons who, however vague their understanding of their own desires, were insistent that the revolution should not be abortive in its results.
It was this division of the great progressive element that gave the reactionary party under Félix Díaz and General Huerta its chance to overthrow the government. Their victory was at bottom more significant of the intense desire of the nation for a new era of justice than it was of dissatisfaction with the experiment in democracy, which was far too short to afford any real test whatsoever.
At this point mention may well be made of an erroneous statement which of late has appeared in American newspapers, and which should be corrected; the statement that when Madero was elected President he polled only 20,000 votes. Presidential elections in Mexico are indirect, and the mistake has arisen through a confusion of the popular vote with the electoral vote. For the purpose of national elections, under the electoral law in force until December, 1911, the country was divided into "sections" of 500 inhabitants each, one member of the electoral college being chosen from each section.1 As there is a Mexican population of
In this particular the new law is virtually the same.
15,000,000 people, there existed theoretically about 30,000 electoral sections. Actually there were only about 20,000 in which polls were held at the time of Madero's election. Approximately 95 per cent of the presidential electors from these 20,000 sections cast their votes for Madero.
Of the 500 inhabitants of a section, the normal number of voters is from 80 to 100. On the average, probably from 20 to 25 per cent of these went to the polls. It might be impossible to obtain authentic figures, but it seems safe to say that the 19,000 electors who cast their votes for Madero were chosen by the ballots of 350,000 Mexicans. Even this number is a small portion of those entitled to the suffrage; but, under the circumstances, it is reasonable to consider their choice as fairly representative of the will of the Mexican people.
The purpose of bringing Mexico into a new era, which they failed to accomplish through that election, they will seek new agencies to fulfill. Its chief exponents at present are the Constitutionalists. The leaders may be expected to profit from Madero's mistakes, and to accept no compromises that are likely to defeat their ends. The results of past compromises will explain General Carranza's unwillingness for mediation. If he treats with Huerta, it will probably be when Huerta's control is so far gone that Carranza will be able practically to dictate the terms. He must feel sure that the man who may be selected for provisional President is one in whose democracy the people will have entire confidence. They have been so accustomed to elections determined by official power that otherwise they would not vote freely in the polling for a permanent president. The result might be a choice not at all representative of the will of the nation, and the revolution would remain to be fought over again.
Foreign governments, therefore, desiring to end the disorder, should beware of forcing a compromise. They should give little heed to capitalists who are more interested in securing present returns from their Mexican investments, even through an iron-handed and cruelly oppressive
peace for a number of years, than they are in bringing permanent happiness to Mexico. If the people do not get justice now, they will surely demand it later, for "The smallest worm will turn, being trodden on."
THE PRESENT DAY PHASE OF THE MONROE
By F. E. Chadwick, Rear Admiral, United States Navy, Formerly President of the Naval War College; Chief
of Staff to Admiral Sampson in the Spanish War
I think it well that there should from time to time be discussions of our public policies so that their true meaning be kept before the country. Any policy which cannot stand discussion is of course a bad policy, for in a free discussion of any question of policy or politics is our safety. It is the basis of the freedom of which we boast. I thus hope, whatever the views of those concerned, that we shall have a full and frank discussion of the subject in hand.
Before entering on the question itself, I would like to say that we are using an erroneous nomenclature in applying the term "Latin" to those parts of the Americas settled by the Spanish and Portuguese. There is no Latin America in a true sense: but there is an Iberic America settled by the people of the Iberic peninsula, the races in which are still mainly of the old Iberic blood and in no large sense "Latin." I shall have something to say of this later.
I have heard no mention of the actual Doctrine under discussion as it originally stood. I thus venture to say a few words on this.
It was in reality due mainly to John Quincy Adams, Monroe's secretary of state. He first gave it concrete form and was thus its true author. It was by his insistence despite tremblings of the President and the rest of the Cabinet that it appeared in a note read on November 21, 1823, to Baron Tuyll, the Russian Minister, in form as follows:
That the United States of America, and their govern ment could not see with indifference, the forcible interposition of any European power, other than Spain, either to restore the dominion of Spain over her emancipated colonies in America, or to estab
lish monarchial governments in those countries, or to transfer any of the possessions heretofore or yet subject to Spain in the American hemisphere to any other European power.
As the responsibility of the acceptance of the principle and of its appearance later in fuller form was the President's it very properly took his name.
So early as July 17 of that year Adams had announced this policy to Byron Tuyll in an official conversation, saying that "we should assume distinctly the principle that the American continents are no longer subjects for any new colonial establishments." These expressions, those of Adams as well as that fathered by Monroe, were the outcome of the alliance known as Holy, consisting first of Russia, Austria and Prussia. England shortly became a signatory and France became a party in 1818. The alliance in this year stated the "respose of the world" as "constantly their motive and end." To assist Spain in reducing to obedience her revolted American provinces was one of the means proposed. England under the guidance of George Canning, one of the greatest of her statesmen at any period, withdrew from the alliance. Canning's attitude and the pronouncement in Monroe's message on the meeting of congress December 21, 1823, gave a quietus to any proposed interference with the Spanish provinces, which one by one became independent except Cuba and Puerto Rico. Brazil declared independence of Portugal with a scion of Portuguese royalty as emperor.
We thus very materially assisted Mexico and the South American republics in establishing their nationality. That we had none but the vaguest ideas regarding the conditions of these various countries, the character and temperament of the populations, goes without saying. We know all too little of them now, and, particularly, we know, or at least take to heart, but little of the race characteristics of the governing class small in numbers and which, in all but Brazil where it is Portuguese, is of Spanish blood. The Anglo-Saxon is proverbially slow and weak in the acquirement or at least in the application of such race knowledge. The great mass of our people are apt to assign to all races their own qualities; to believe