Information Sampling and Adaptive CognitionKlaus Fiedler, Peter Juslin Cambridge University Press, 2006 - 488 sider A 'sample' is not only a concept from statistics that has penetrated common sense but also a metaphor that has inspired much research and theorizing in current psychology. The sampling approach emphasizes the selectivity and the biases that are inherent in the samples of information input with which judges and decision makers are fed. As environmental samples are rarely random, or representative of the world as a whole, decision making calls for censorship and critical evaluation of the data given. However, even the most intelligent decision makers tend to behave like 'näive intuitive statisticians': quite sensitive to the data given but uncritical concerning the source of the data. Thus, the vicissitudes of sampling information in the environment together with the failure to monitor and control sampling effects adequately provide a key to re-interpreting findings obtained in the last two decades of research on judgment and decision making. |
Indhold
The Perception | 33 |
Intuitive Judgments about Sample Size | 53 |
The Role of Information Sampling in Risky Choice | 72 |
Less Is More in Covariation Detection Or Is It? | 92 |
Subjective Validity Judgments as an Index of Sensitivity | 127 |
An Analysis of Structural Availability Biases | 147 |
Subjective Confidence and the Sampling of Knowledge | 153 |
Contingency Learning and Biased Group Impressions | 183 |
Assessing Evidential Support in Uncertain Environments | 261 |
Sampling | 299 |
Confidence in Aggregation of Opinions from | 327 |
Self as Sample | 353 |
VICISSITUDES OF SAMPLING IN THE RESEARCHERS | 381 |
Foresight and Hindsight as a Sampling Probability | 409 |
Natural Sampling of Stimuli in Artificial Grammar | 440 |
Is Confidence in Decisions Related to Feedback? Evidence | 456 |
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accuracy advisors alternative assessment Bayesian Bayesian probability behavior biased sampling Brunswik causal chapter choice cognitive condition confidence contingency correlation cue pattern cue validities decision diagnostic discussion effect environment estimates evaluation evidence expected expected value experience feedback Fiedler Figure formation frequency Gigerenzer group members group membership heuristic hidden profiles hindsight bias hypothesis illusory correlation in-group in-group bias inference information sampling interval intuitive Journal of Experimental Journal of Personality judges Juslin Kahneman Kareev Klayman learning memory Monty Hall problem number of cues observed outcomes overconfidence parameter participants Personality and Social population predictions preference-consistent probability judgments problem processes proportion pseudo-contingency Psychological Review rare events ratings recognition heuristic reference class representative responses sample size sample statistics sampling bias sampling distribution Sedlmeier selected shared information simulation small samples Social Psychology Stasser statistics stereotype stimulus task theory tion town of residence Tversky unshared information validity variability variance versus Winman