has been hitherto inadequate, and because, therefore, of some radical and similar error in both theories, which will disappear on a better knowledge of the relations, and hence truer conception of the causes of things. And another, a third, suggestion occurs that clinches all the foregoing considerations, and seems to make of a new enquiry into Causation, not a mere preliminary course of research, but the most hopeful, at once, and direct that could be entered on with the view of discovering what alone can make the New Philosophy fully adequate to take the place of the Christian Philosophy of History-an Ultimate Law. For, when we enlarge our view, the great epochs of the Revival of Learning, the Renaissance of Art, the Reformation of Religion, and the French Revolution, are seen to form, with the movement of the present century, but progressive stages of a great historical change; and not only so, but we believe that we can discern in this change an Intellectual Revolution, which may be defined as, in its profoundest significance, a change in men's notions of the causes of change. If, therefore, through the study of the relations of things, as our later knowledge reveals them to us, we can but get at a clearer conception of the true nature of Causation; may it not be that we shall not only obtain a theory reconciliative of the long antagonism of Idealism and Materialism, but shall, in comparing this later with earlier conceptions of Causation, discover also the most general ascertainable Law of Man's history-a law that shall be to those Laws of Comte which formulated the historical theory of

Hume, what the Law of Newton was to the Laws of Kepler-an Ultimate Law that will enable us rightly, at length, to interpret the Past, and truly to prophesy the Future? Magnificent, then, as are the general views presented by the Philosophies of History, let us turn from these high speculations to the drudgery, though it may be, of making ourselves acquainted, through experimental research, with the most exact results of our later knowledge. These, in their inmost meaning, let us master; these let us evaluate, and as fully as possible develope in those more true conceptions which they seem to afford of Causation, before we make any further attempt at a scientific comprehension of the starry sphere of History. Newton laid aside his researches on the orbits of the Planets till he had obtained a more exact value of the semidiameter of the Earth. And we may hope that when, after a like evaluation of the ground on which we stand, we resume our study of the ensphering system of Humanity, we shall gather knowledge, not inapproximately, perhaps, as accurate as that of the astronomers from the base which they had thus ascertained.

1 In Picard's more accurate measurement of an arc of the meridian, correcting Newton's estimate of sixty miles to a degree, and hence giving greater accuracy to his calculation of the Moon's distance in semidiameters of the Earth. See Grant, History of Physical Astronomy, p. 24.

SUBSECTION III.

The need of a Law of History as the Authority of a New Polity.

1. We have thus seen, first, that Religion, having become with Christianity an Ideal based on a Philosophy of History, and this philosophical system having been found incredible; a true and complete Philosophy of History, or, more definitely, an Ultimate Law of History is needed as the basis of the Ideal, or, what that in effect will be, the Religion of the Future. Secondly, though we have found only misconception and inevitable self-contradiction in the objections urged against the New Philosophy of History; a general survey of it has obliged us to acknowledge that it is still far from complete; yet has shown us, at the same time, to what this incompleteness is due, and has, at least, directed us on the road to the discovery of that Law which is required for its completion. And now, before passing on to state the principles of that New Philosophical Method by which the discovery was, at length, as I venture to think, made of the Ultimate Law of History; I would point out the urgent need of such a Law, not only in order—as in the first subsection I have shown-to give the required new basis for the Ideal; but in order to have such guidance for Policy as can, in times so revolutionary as these, alone save from worse than suicidal, from nation

destroying, humanity-mutilating error. And thus I would desire to impress on the reader that merely speculative as may appear to be a search for the Ultimate Law of History which, in the way in which we have been led to take it up, resolves itself into, or at least demands as its preliminary, an enquiry so abstract as one having for its aim the reconciliation of the antagonistic causation-theories of Idealism and Materialism-distinctly practical our researches, nevertheless, are in their whole spirit and purpose. It may, indeed, be confessed that, only the clearness with which was seen the baselessness now of the Ideal, the unauthoritativeness now of Polity; and the fervour with which it was desired to gain, at length, a true basis for the reconstruction of the Ideal, and an acknowledgable authority for the reorganisation of Polity; this only it has been that has strengthened and encouraged in the prosecution of a task often apparently desperate. Nor, indeed, need one hesitate to acknowledge this. For that New Era, initiated by Bacon and Descartes, has had no more significant characteristic than the increasingly practical tendency of its conscious aims. At first, expressly disavowing not only all intention of disturbing, but all capability of affecting the religious Creed, and social organisation of Christendom, Philosophy has gradually become not only conscious of such capability, but emboldened to avow such intention. Descartes specially guarded himself from the imputation of having any social aims in his philosophy.1 Both Hegel and Comte carry their philosophical

1 See his Discours sur le Méthode.

And

theories distinctly out into social applications. those who are blind enough honestly now to deny the transforming effect which the diffusion of scientific knowledge, and more than all, the diffusion of the scientific mode of thought is having, and will certainly more and more have on religious beliefs, and hence on social institutions, are simply some three centuries behind time. Not for the golden apples thrown-down before Atalanta, and which, tempting to stoop for them, lost her the race; not for lucre; not for the sake only of self-culture; not with the view even of establishing a new sect or doctrine; but, as with Bacon, in this also before his time, in order to lay the foundations of human happiness and enlargement' is the 'augmentation of the sciences' now avowedly sought.

2. An epoch in Politics may be dated from that famous speech of Lord Palmerston's, in which Public Opinion was proclaimed as, for the true statesman, at once the guide to the conception, and the means to the execution of his ends. There are,' said the hitherto unobserved subaltern, henceforth the world-renowned statesman, There are two great parties in Europe: one which endeavours to bear sway by the force of public opinion; another which endeavours to bear sway by the force of physical control. The principle on which the system of this party is founded is, in my view, fundamentally erroneous. There is in nature no

1 M. Littré thus but expresses what is universally felt by thinkers when he says:-'Le sort des destinées sociales et celui de la science sont désormais unis indissolublement.' Paroles de Philosophie positive, p. 69. 2 Utilitatis et amplitudinis humanæ fundamenta moliri.' Instau. Mag. Fræf. Works (Ellis and Spedding), vol. 1. p. 132.

In the Portugal Debate, 1st June, 1829.