The Next Great War?: The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.-China Conflict

Forsideomslag
Richard N. Rosecrance, Steven E. Miller
MIT Press, 21. nov. 2014 - 285 sider

Experts consider how the lessons of World War I can help prevent U.S.–China conflict.

A century ago, Europe's diplomats mismanaged the crisis triggered by the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and the continent plunged into World War I, which killed millions, toppled dynasties, and destroyed empires. Today, as the hundredth anniversary of the Great War prompts renewed debate about the war's causes, scholars and policy experts are also considering the parallels between the present international system and the world of 1914. Are China and the United States fated to follow in the footsteps of previous great power rivals? Will today's alliances drag countries into tomorrow's wars? Can leaders manage power relationships peacefully? Or will East Asia's territorial and maritime disputes trigger a larger conflict, just as rivalries in the Balkans did in 1914?

In The Next Great War?, experts reconsider the causes of World War I and explore whether the great powers of the twenty-first century can avoid the mistakes of Europe's statesmen in 1914 and prevent another catastrophic conflict. They find differences as well as similarities between today's world and the world of 1914—but conclude that only a deep understanding of those differences and early action to bring great powers together will likely enable the United States and China to avoid a great war.

Contributors
Alan Alexandroff, Graham Allison, Richard N. Cooper, Charles S. Maier, Steven E. Miller, Joseph S. Nye Jr., T. G. Otte, David K. Richards, Richard N. Rosecrance, Kevin Rudd, Jack Snyder, Etel Solingen, Arthur A. Stein, Stephen Van Evera

 

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Indhold

Three Styles of Diplomacy
3
2 Respites or Resolutions? Recurring Crises and the Origins of War
13
The Paradox of 1914 as Everyones Favored Year for War
25
4 Allies Overbalance and War
45
5 Economic Interdependence and War
57
6 The Thucydides Trap
73
Historical Differences That Weaken the Peloponnesian Analogy
81
8 Thucydides Alliance Politics and Great Power Conflict
91
11 European Militaries and the Origins of World War I
149
12 Inevitability and War
179
Reflections on the Centenary of the Outbreak of World War I
193
14 Contingency as a Cause or Little Things Mean a Lot
211
Notes
219
Contributors
271
Index
277
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
287

9 War Revolution and the Uncertain Primacy of Domestic Politics
103
Then and Now
127

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Om forfatteren (2014)

Richard N. Rosecrance is Director of the U.S.-China Relations Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, where he is also adjunct professor of public policy. Steven E. Miller is director of the International Security Program at the Belfer Center.

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